Team Standings – Schedule Modified Winning Percentage

[by greenmig]

So here we are 5 weeks in to NLL Season 2014-15.  The enthusiasm which filled the league still continues however as the standings picture becomes clearer it appears that for many gm’s their lofty expectations are not being met whilst for others expectations are being exceeded.

So as usual, let’s take a look at the data and put some facts to the matter in an attempt to clear the haze.  To do so we have taken a look at the current standings and applied a schedule modifier.  That being we have looked at schedule to date and remaining schedules for each team.  We have then calculated the team’s likely modified winning percentage.  We have graphed our results and then grouped our teams into categories as follows:

1.       Elite

2.       Title Contender

3.       Playoffs Bound

4.       On the Bubble

5.       Lottery Bound

6.       Yay for Mudiay

7.       Tankzilla

(nb: for clarity, whilst it is acknowledged that injuries have played a factor to date in team records and will continue to do so, this analysis does not comment on or attempt to quantify their impact since doing so is bordering on folly).

1.       Elite – Cleveland: Like it or not, the Cavaliers are once again the gold standard of the league.  They sit clear at the top of the standings despite having one of the most difficult schedules to date, (5^th hardest).  To no one’s surprise, Lebron James is again in the conversation for the league MVP.

2.       Title Contender – Philadelphia, Boston, Sacramento, Utah: This group represents the next four teams who have clearly separated themselves from the pack.  They are a notch down from Cleveland however they are the next best thing.  Right now these four teams are legitimate title contenders.  Interestingly enough, again like the Cavs these teams have all had tough schedules to date, (all in the 6^th hardest) – except Utah.  The Jazz whilst sitting atop the West have actually played a relatively easy schedule since they sit in the weak Northwest Division.

3.       Playoffs Bound – Indiana, LA Lakers, New York, San Antonio, Dallas, Milwaukee, Golden State: The next group of teams are those who currently sit reasonably comfortably within the top 12 teams in the league.  These teams have separated themselves from the rest however sit a notch down from the title contenders.  On closer inspection quite a difference in raw record spread exists across this group with the Pacers coming in at 0.75 whilst the Warriors are only a 0.455.  However the key schedule strength modifier plays a big role here with the Pacers having had an extremely easy schedule, (6^th easiest) vs the Warriors who have had the hardest schedule in the NLL to date.

4.       On the Bubble – Atlanta, Phoenix, Charlotte, LA Clippers, Houston, New Orleans, Miami, Toronto, Chicago: Our biggest group of teams are those who are teetering awfully close to those 7^th and 8^th spots however like seagulls fighting over a chip there are going to be some teams who miss out.  In this group one team which perhaps stands out are the Heat who have the best record of 0.545 however have had the 2^nd easiest schedule to date this season.  These guys have been beating up on league minnows so to speak.

5.       Lottery Bound – Washington, Denver, Memphis, Brooklyn, Minnesota: Whilst I am sure the gm’s representing these teams would not agree, the numbers don’t lie and right now these teams are clearly Lottery Bound.  Either way they have their work cut out for them if they want to join the ‘On the Bubble’ crowd AND then win one of those coveted final playoff spots.

6.       Yay for Mudiay – Portland, Detroit, Oklahoma City – These three teams are clearly in the race to the bottom and right now whilst you may not catch their gm’s saying it publicly, I am sure there are a few ‘Yay for Mudiay’s’ being whispered behind closed doors in Rip City, Motor City and Oklahoma City.  Note, whilst the Blazers current record may have been sufficient to enter into the ‘Lottery Bound’ group they have had an extraordinarily easy schedule to date of 0.399 opponent winning % - by far the easiest in the NLL.

7.       Tankzilla – Orlando: This year we have made a special category for the Magic.  Whilst this may not endear him to Magic fans, gm laddas has made no secret about the fact that his team is built to stink this season with an eye on the future.  Congratulations sir, it appears you are achieving your goal!

So there you have it, our schedule modifier early season wrap.  I am sure there will be significant debate and I encourage it.  Please feel free to send your comments to; #numbers-don’t-lie or #leopards-don’t-change-their-spots.