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NLL Insider - Week in Christmas Trades

by juvenile404, updated on Tuesday, January 06 2015, 03:43 pm EST

Early Review of the Week in Christmas Trades

This year, as in the past, Week 4 is a heavy one in trading. As players who were signed in free agency or traded during the offseason are now open to being dealt once again, this is the first opportunity a team has to rectify a signing or deal that just has not worked thus far. But just four weeks into the young season, are some teams jumping the gun? Or have some made legitimate moves to bolster their rosters? After just one week of games, let's get an early analysis on this year's flurry of Christmas activity.

The Trades

Atlanta Hawks, Record Since Trade: 6-3

*Key Stat: Channing Frye averaging 6.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG (+5.3, 9.08 PER) vs. Chris Bosh's 7.0 PPG & 6.3 RPG (-5.5, 8.61 PER)

Orlando Magic, Record Since Trade: 0-8

*Key Stat: Bosh has yet to suit up for the Orlando Magic, and will make his debut for the team in Week 6

This deal was the first of the holiday season, and the easiest to evaluate thus far. The Atlanta Hawks have been an underperforming squad this season. With four stars that all demanded the ball there were bound to be some issues. Furthermore, after drafting Marcus Smart, seeing Kyle Lowry return, and already having Patrick Beverly on the roster, the team had too many point guards. So, the Hawks packaged together Chris Bosh (their highest paid and poorest performing star), Marcus Smart (their most highly valued PG, and most recent number one draft pick), along with Nazr Mohammed and Jae Crowder. In return they got four pieces that would fit far better on their team and solved their two biggest issues. So far Frye is performing just as well as Bosh ever could and stretches the floor just as well, if not better. Evans is producing efficiently off the bench as a spark plug on the wing that the team had not had previously. And in addition to providing some on-court help now Rudy Gobert and T.J. Warren ensure the Hawks do not lose sight of the future, which is something that most teams deal away when trading potential future stars for help today. When the Hawks decided to include Smart in the deal, they threatened to lose just that. However, the team keeps the future in prospective with these two pick-ups.

The Magic have yet to see much benefit from this deal, but hope that Chris Bosh can be the focus of this team once he returns from injury. Set to make his Orlando Magic debut in Week 6, we will see shortly what he brings to the table. The Magic will not make the playoffs this season, that is fairly evident. The East is too strong and the mountains they must climb are too steep, so any deals they make must be viewed with an eye toward the future. While Bosh can not only help now, he seems like a good fit next to the young Embiid (if he is able to return next season). On a five year deal, Bosh will become a mentor for the young big man. Smart is an undeniable talent that the team will want to keep their eye on as he develops. The only problem may be that the team has a surplus of young point guards much like the Hawks once had with Lowry, Bev and Smart. Will Smart and Rubio be able to co-exist, or will one of them be gone by the start of the next season?

Indiana Pacers, Record Since Deal: 3-0

*Key Stat: Brandon Knight has scored 2.7 more PPG at the SG position than did Arron Afflalo

San Antonio Spurs, Record Since Deal: 1-2

*Key Stat: Arron Afflalo Stat Changes, 3 GP, FG% -5% 3P% -6%, -3.9 PPG, -1.4 APG

Today the point guard position is one in which many of the young men coming into the league are not just playmakers, but can score as well. This has led to a few teams tinkering with two point guard lineups, and allowing that scoring ability to become unleashed as one or the other can show it at any time playing the SG position. The Indiana Pacers show evidence of that trend growing in the NLL with this deal. GM Sheed shrewdly saw an opportunity to get more production out of the team's shooting guard position by shipping out Afflalo and making room for an upgrade at point guard by simply moving Brandon Knight over to the two. We will see how this change continues to take shape, but early returns are a success. While many may point to decreased production when comparing Tony Allen to Dorell Wright, Knight has made up for that difference himself on the offensive side of the ball. And what Tony Allen can add defensively at the wing in an Eastern Conference that sports the likes of LeBron James and Kevin Durant cannot be undersold.

For the Spurs, early returns may not be so indicative of future returns on this deal. The biggest "elephant in the room" when it comes to this deal is the impending free agency of Goran Dragic. As the team trying to trade a star with an expiring contract and looking to enter the free agent market, deals that net equal value are tougher to come by as some will devalue the player based on this risk. The Spurs were lucky to find a trade partner in the Pacers who knew what they wanted to do with Dragic and exactly how he could help impact their team today. This allowed the Spurs to get good value for Dragic, which they did. However, they now must find out how their new pieces fit together. The "Key Stat" above is just one example of an underperformer for the Spurs this past week. Afflalo is a better player than what he has shown so far for the Spurs, and we saw this in Indiana. Look at how his stats have decreased in the three game he has played as a Spur. As the season progresses we will find out more about how these players will play together and will get a clearer picture of how the Spurs fared in this deal. Hopefully GM Leeroy will be able to put together the pieces so he can get all of his new players performing at their peak levels.

L.A. Clippers, Record Since Deal: 3-1

*Key Stat: Shelvin Mack, 4 GP, 20.5 PPG, 7.8 APG, 1.56 AST/TO, 45% FG 45%, 3P 33%

Phoenix Suns, Record Since Deal: 2-2

*Key Stat: The Phoenix Suns averaged their highest PPG total all year in Week 5!

The Clippers have beaten the likes of the Boston Celtics and the Portland Trailblazers, but lost big to the Kings. Given the injuries to teams like the Celtics and Blazers, that loss to the Kings may be more telling. However, it is hard to ignore that the Clippers are getting a lot of productivity from a less talented pool of players. Wins against the Celts and Blazers are tough to come by even with those injuries. Trading away two stars in one week, though, one in this deal, will not likely have a positive impact on the team immediately. So while they escape their first week without their stars with a winning record, the Clippers will likely see that tail off as the season progresses.

But let's look at this deal for the Clippers much like we did the Magic trade above; with an eye toward the future. The Clippers got themselves two solid wing prospects in Shabazz Muhammad and Rodney Hood and were also able to grab a first round and second round pick from the Suns to boot. Furthermore they acquired the rights to Ben Gordon, a player with a team option for next season and three quarters left in this one to audition for a place on this rebuilding squad. The Clippers did alright, but for giving up the best player in the deal.

The Suns, on the other hand, have their eyes focused on the present and were glad to take Monta for the Clippers. Ellis will team up with Rajon Rondo to form one of the deadliest perimeter duos in the league. With Chandler Parsons, Josh Smith, and Larry Sanders beside those two, the Suns will not be an easy team to face in the playoffs. However, this team looks extremely thin behind that mean starting lineup. Jason Terry and Steve Blake will provide a spark from time-to-time. Kyle O'Quinn and Kris Humphries are very serviceable bigs who can come in to provide a breather for Sanders and Smith. But can any of these guys start? The Suns have undoubtedly just gotten themselves the requisite talent to acquire a playoff spot in the Western Conference. But what happens when we get to the playoffs?, where sometimes it's better to be lucky than good? Will the Suns be lucky enough to have their starting five intact? Let's hope Penny does not have to answer these questions in May or June.

Miami Heat, Record Since Deal: 2-2

*Key Stat: Marc Gasol is averaging career highs in PPG and RPG in a breakout year

L.A. Clippers, Record Since Deal: 3-1

*Key Stat: Kevin Garnett, 4 GP, 61% FG, 15.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG (21.51 PER)

Toronto Raptors, Record Since Deal: 2-2

*Key Stat: Dirk Nowitzki accounted for just 16.17% of the Raptors' starters shots

The story is the same here with the Clippers: they are doing more (or at least the same) with less. The team has traded back and grabbed a few expiring contracts (see KG's stat line above!) at a value and got a few picks to go along with them. Not exactly tanking but knowing the playoffs are just out of reach, the Clippers GM has played this wisely. The team is set up with four first round picks in a good 2015 draft class. The team has assets to trade or to use at their disposal for the next couple of seasons. In this deal not only did they get KG, but got an additional first rounder coming from the Raptors.

The real story here is between the Raptors and the Heat. Everyone can plainly see what the Heat achieve in this deal: they get themselves the best player in the deal and a legitimate franchise center. At a time in the league where a franchise center is hard to come by, this fact cannot be understated. Gasol is having a career year, and has even upped his rebounding percentage since joining the Heat. The Heat went just 2-2 in Week 5, and we would expect the impact of Gasol to be felt immediately. However, I say let the team figure out the best way to achieve lineup synergy and we will witness whether they can soar to elite status and take on contenders like the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers.

And if the Heat got all that, what did the Raptors get in return? Many argue, not much! One must also remember that in addition to Marc, the Raptors also traded their top selection in the 2015 draft to turn Kevin Garnett into Dirk Nowitzki. Many have loathed how Dirk performs on their team, and GM Juvenile404 will next take on the task of getting Dirk to break out. So far the Raptors have not proven successful at all. Despite Dirk's DECREASED production in Toronto, the team has gone 2-2. A .500 week for a sub-.500 squad can be a step in the right direction. A big part of their early success has been the acquisition of Enes Kanter, the second of the two players the Raptors acquired. Kanter is a young big man (only 22 years old) who will become a restricted free agent this upcoming offseason (much like Reggie Jackson). As was stated in the analysis for our second trade (between the Spurs and Pacers), it is tougher to deal away the rights to a player coming into an unrestricted free agency. This is exactly what the Raptors had to face when dealing away Gasol. The team was able to mitigate its risk of loss by picking up a restricted free agent center instead in Enes Kanter. Not only has Kanter enabled Juve to mitigate his risk, the young man is playing outstanding basketball through his first four games as a Raptor. As Reggie Jackson has moved into the starting shooting guard position, a few wondered how the team would respond without having its spark off the bench. Fortunately for the Raptors, they never had to face that issue as Kanter has stepped into that role amazingly well.

Despite how well Kanter plays, though, the Raptors must Dirk to play well. The combination of Dirk and Kanter must get the Raptors by both the Hawks and the Bulls for a playoff berth for this trade to be successful. The Raptors could have gone one of two ways with this season after Anderson Varejao went down, and they decided to continue to try to win themselves a spot in the playoffs. GM Juve has not missed the playoffs since his first season in the league, and this trade was made with the intent to get his team back there this year.

Archive

· All-Star Spotlight: Westbrook

· Meet the Eastern All-Star Reserves!

· It's a Trader’s League

· Surprise, Surprise

· Week in Christmas Trades

· Schedule Modified Winning%

· One Move Away

· Injury Effects

· NLL Radio: Jambalaya!

· The New Guys

 

 

 

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