NLL Insider - Southwest Division Preview

by wizkid, updated on Saturday, November 19 2016, 02:32 pm EST

Team to beat: I've never been one that says the previous season's champ is the best team until proven otherwise but the Mavs are the easy pick here... they won 56 games, ended the season strongly before facing a tough Nuggets team in the conference semi-finals and they've brought back all of the team outside of Dirk. They haven't gotten better and with Smokey attending to other priorities lately while the Rockets and Spurs are creeping up behind him, it's gotten close - but the Mavs still have the targets on their back.

Key story line: Brotherhood is kind of the go to move here - Leeroy and Smokey have been passing the division title back and forth for over a decade now. I went back to find the last time a non-brother team won, thinking I wouldn't find one until I got back to the Greenmig-Rockets. However, the Pelicans of all teams won with 42 wins in a lockout shortened 2011-2012 season. The theme for this year - TEXAS. If you're in this division and you're in Texas, you're making the playoffs... if you're in this division and not in Texas, you're not making the playoffs. Let's look at the teams one by one:

Dallas - The Mavs have both some good talent and depth. They're probably the best team in the league that doesn't have a top 50 player. Their currently projected starting lineup has two guys that are defensive-specialists (Jordan and Hollis-Jefferson), two point guards (Mudiay and Jrue Holiday), and an offensive minded four. It could work really well if the coach can find the right style to generate enough points, but it seems like an awkward fit right now.

Houston - They're top heavy, probably even more so than last year. But another year of growth from IT2, Hayward and Whiteside renders them one of the top few trios in the league. Kanter and Aflalo should provide just enough to make the starters one of the best 5 man units in the league - but can they do enough damage or stagger their rotations enough to survive an already thin bench that lost Barbosa, Teletovic, Ellington, Jennings, and Mahinmi? They need to bolster their bench, but have limited ability to do so without breaking up their starters. The first challenge is to find a GM though... job candidates are even picking Portland over Houston!

Memphis - Chris Bosh's health issues have left the team a bit hamstrung between a team with a few good vets and a rebuilding team. The most recent episode seemed to be serious enough to kick off a rebuilding project that some have waited to see take flight. Sending out Teague for two likely mid-round firsts is solid return, but it locks them in for an even more bumpy season this year. Exum and Chriss aren't enough of a foundation to form the core of a rebuild - so Jesse probably needs to dig for more future assets, but the only thing he has that could realistically bring back more picks or potential would be Wes Matthews - he's probably the next man out the door.

New Orleans - They're a few steps ahead of the Grizzlies in their own rebuild. It wasn't a complete tear-down, and they have more talent to show because of that. They have 8 or 10 guys that can really play in this league but they have almost no star power. GM BM must have a strong preference for scoring points - because basically all of their top 6 or 7 players are known as offensively-minded players that are a negative on the defensive end. I think they'll miss the playoffs, but narrowly enough that I personally sold high on their 2017 first round pick. I think it is more likely that they're fighting to get into the playoffs than fighting for top lottery odds.

San Antonio - Anthony Davis seems poised for his best season yet and now it looks like he's got a running mate. The huge risk/reward that Leeroy took, rolling the dice on Joel Embiid seems to already be paying off. The wings feature a pair of 2016 breakout players in Mo Harkless and Will Barton and Reggie Jackson will be featured at point guard when he returns from injury. Between Leeroy's long tenure and the NBA Spurs, I always think of this team as a bit more veteran - but Jackson is actually the most experienced player on the roster, with five years of NLL service.

Five best players:

1) Spurs PF Anthony Davis - This division isn't really known for star power, and it falls off drastically after Davis. This is the only guy in the division that has come close to sniffing an MVP conversation... NLL or NBA.

2) Mavs C DeAndre Jordan - This may be a bit of a controversial pick at #2 in the division. I don't think he's necessarily the most talented, but if you look at this like an in-division MVP race - the Mavs need his rebounding and interior defense more than any other team relies on a single player for anything. Jordan is considered a top 3 center in the league by some, and I think with bigs back in style this year, the increased rebounds and blocks will offset what looks to be an abysmal year for him from the free throw line.

3) Rockets PG Isaiah Thomas - The first of a trio of Rockets all-star hopefuls is the smallest, but also the most important to his team. Thomas has emerged from a guy that was trying to just make an NLL roster a few years ago to a big time point guard. Thomas doesn't have much help in the backcourt from his Rockets teammates, so he'll have the ball a ton this year.

4) Rockets C Hassan Whiteside - Speaking of just trying to make a team, can you believe it has only been about 20 months since the Clippers picked this guy up for pocket change and he is another top 5 center for this division. The Rockets paid dearly to bring him in, but he takes them from continuing the Hayward/Thomas duo that struggled to make the Wizards relevant to a solid playoff team.

5) Rockets SF Gordon Hayward - I feel bad pulling three straight from the same team... but there's another big drop off after this top 5. To me, Hayward rounds out the players in this division that are legitimate all-star hopefuls and after that it drops off to some guys that may belong here a year from now - guys like Embiid, Barton, and Mudiay. They aren't ready yet though, so Houston's do-it-all glue guy gets the nod for the fifth and final spot.

Sleeper: The three top teams are too good to be considered sleepers and Memphis is a coma. This pretty much leaves us with New Orleans. Like I said previously, I see enough talent in their rotation, that I got rid of their upcoming first round pick because the perceived value was top 5, and I feel like it may be 8 to 10 slots lower than that come draft time. They have a well rounded roster that will be able to weather the injuries every team faces and more pure-scorers than most teams in the league. They'll put points up in bunches and just hope to outscore other teams, honestly upside is probably 40 wins and a few games outside of the playoffs, but crazier things have happened.

Breakout star: Even if it falls off a good bit after the top 5, this division does have a few solid up and coming players. Embiid is sure to show off some skill, but between resting his recovering legs and sharing the frontcourt with AD and Biyombo (for now) I don't think this will be his year. I'm going with T.J. Warren. The offensively-focused forward has bounced around a crazy amount in his first 2 seasons in the league - showing up on four different teams, including two separate stops in Orlando. He showed a bit of a flash last year, starting 4 games and averaging 10 points per game in his one week with the Pels. Usually to win Most Improved Player, you look for a guy to jump about 10 ppg and take some similar leaps in other areas... I think Warren may have what it takes to lock up the award at the league level and not just in the division - as long as voters don't hold the likely playoff miss against him.

Best newcomer: The division was solid last year, and no teams really made a big play to add anyone via trade or free agency. Everybody focused heavily on retaining their own players - even New Orleans dropped 99 points to keep Chandler Parsons around for the second straight year. Because of this, I am going to give Joel Embiid the nod for newcomer of the year. He's in the rare situation where he was on the Spurs roster last year, and 2+ years after he was drafted, he's getting geared up for his rookie season - but out of the guys that weren't on a Southwest Division roster last season, I think he's going to have the biggest impact. I think he'll probably supplant Bismack Biyombo and start next to AD early in the year - and if Leeroy doesn't decide to blow it up, may form a dominant frontcourt for the Spurs for the next several seasons.

Prediction: But that's not my pick, need to give the readers something to talk about. I think the Rockets are taking this division. Why? Because I think having two true bigs inside is going to be important this year - the Spurs and Rockets have this and the Mavs don't. From there, the Isaiah Thomas/Gordon Hayward duo is a lot better than any other perimeter duo in the division. Spudspace pulled just enough moves to shore up the rest of the team before skipping town - and I think it's going to pay off. Spurs then Mavs behind them, Pelicans missing the playoffs by less than many expect, and Grizzlies rocking in the corner waiting for the season to end.

NLL Insider - Southwest Division Preview

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