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Draft for Talent or for Need?

It seems like these days, this isn't even a question. Nowadays, given the option, a team will always grab the best available player, even if they already have an established star on their roster that shares the same position. When you look back at the great draft day regrets, the ones that really stand out are the picks that teams made that, at the time, seemed like the right choice based on the team's needs and who they currently had on their roster. In the NBA, the Portland Trailblazers stand out as being on the losing end of two of the biggest draft day mistakes because they chose need over talent. Or at least that was the perception.

The most famous example, of course, was the infamous 1984 draft when the Blazers selected Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan. At the time, the Blazers had Clyde Drexler as their starting shooting guard and one of the best at that position in the league. Bowie, on the other hand was an ideal fit for Portland. He was an outstanding center for Kentucky, a talented big man who could pass well. Scouts saw that Jordan was good at UNC and felt that he was going to be a good NBA player, but they also noted that he wasn't a great shooter. So the situation wasn't so clear-cut that Jordan was clearly going to be the best player of all time while Bowie would be a good, but not great center.

Also, an important consideration here was that in this era and since the beginning of the NBA, teams that won championships did so with a dominant center. So if a rare opportunity came along where a dominant center was available (as was the case with the #1 pick in that year's draft when Houston selected Hakeem Olajuwon), any GM would have been considered foolish not to grab him.

Fast forward to 2007, when there were two obvious stars available - Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. Oden was pretty widely regarded as a franchise center and, according to many scouts, an obvious choice for the 1st pick. Durant was viewed as a prolific scorer, but was very thin and scouts felt that he'd be tossed around when up against NBA talent. Plus, as in '84, their biggest star (Brandon Roy) was occupying the same spot that Durant would fill. And still, even at that point in the NBA, a dominant big man was still considered the most sought after player in the league. After all, prior to that, it was teams with Shaq or Tim Duncan that were winning championships once Jordan was out of the picture. So it again made sense for the Blazers to draft Oden. And that pick was praised by just about everyone.

Nowadays, the center position isn't considered the sure path to a championship as it once was so the focus now is even more clear to draft the best available player, regardless of position. But while we can all say now that Portland should have drafted Michael Jordan and Kevin Durant, it wasn't as obvious at the time that those guys were going to become the superstars that they are. And in the case of Bowie and Oden, it was injuries that derailed their careers, not a lack of talent. So even then, it wasn't a case of Portland going for need over talent. At least not entirely. Yes, they did need a center at the time, more than they needed a shooting guard in '84 or a small forward in '07. But it's important to remember that at the time of the draft, Bowie and Oden were considered to not only be a good fit, but also the best available in many respects.

So as we look toward the 2017 NLL draft, which is widely considered to be one of the best and deepest in recent memory, there are still no guarantees. Scouts seem to feel that Markelle Fultz is a pretty solid bet. Since the Washington Huskies didn't make the tournament, not many people have gotten to see him play. So how will he fare against NBA-level talent? Josh Jackson from Kansas has some scouts excited but they also note that there's some doubt about his shooting and skills.

Lonzo Ball has been the most talked about player of the draft, largely because of his obnoxious father. The pass-first point guard with an unconventional shooting stroke has been compared to Magic and Steph Curry and his dad says he'll be better than both. But overbearing parents can be a blessing and a curse. You have the success stories like Tiger Woods (who didn't implode until later in his career) and the Williams sisters in tennis. But there are also remarkable failures like Todd Marinovich who was a Lonzo Ball-like star with a dad who groomed him to be a star NFL quarterback from an early age. As soon as he was free of his father's grip and making NFL money, Marinovich showed that he had more interest in cocaine than football, and quickly flamed out. Will Lonzo walk a similar path?

You can go through this incredibly deep draft and find pros and cons with every player. So yes, this draft is loaded with talent. But who's a sure thing? Can anyone say with any certainty that they know who the next great star to come out of this draft will be?

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