Team to beat: As has been the case for quite a while now the Dallas Mavericks are the team to beat in the Southwest Division.  They won it last year with a 50-32 record and went on to make the Western Conference Semi-Finals where they held a 3-2 series lead against the eventual Champion Lakers before going down in 7.  Gm smokey is a steady hand and doesn’t make many moves and the few he makes are generally well thought out keeping his team a winner.  In keeping with this trend the Mavericks only made one major deal this off-season sending George Hill away for Kelly Olynyk.  Not the most exciting move considering Hill is a very good player but the Mavericks drafted another PG in Mudiay to replace him.  So the Mavs basically bring back everyone and with the rebounding big man Jordan manning the paint and Young and Green on the wings and Zebo now at 6^th man!  If Holiday can stay healthy and if Mirotic, McDermott and Mudiay can continue to develop we feel the Mavs are in for another 50+ win season. Finally, it is noted that gm smokey is stockpiling draft picks again but perhaps it’s time to cash some of that potential in for another impact player to push the Mavs one step closer to the Title.

Key story line: The SW Division has always been a strong one with the Spurs, Mavs, Grizz and Pels often making a push for the playoffs.  Last season 3 of these 5 teams made it with the Grizz finishing 1 game behind in 9^th.  After coming so close to a Title a few seasons ago maybe it’s time to for the Mavs to set the bar even higher and fight to come out of the West?

Since lucking out in the lottery and drafting Anthony Davis a few seasons ago gm leeroy and the San Antonio Spurs have been the main competition to the Mavs in the SW.  After a so-so 2014/15 campaign where they finished 6^th and got bundled out of the 1^st round by the Jazz the Spurs fans would be hoping for more this season.  With Reggie Jackson developing and Lou Williams and Wes Matthews returning this seemed possible but then a deal sending away Wes for Luol Deng and Joel Oden Embiid, has dropped this team down a notch in the eyes of this writer.  With Davis’ health always looming as a major harbinger for the Spurs’ success the frontcourt depth looks a bit slim and this team just does not look as scary with Batum and Deng on the wings.  Look for the Spurs to top out at about 45 wins this season likely sneaking into a lower playoff seed again out West.

The New Orleans Pelicans tried hard to miss last seasons’ playoffs, eventually finishing 7th and then got thumped by the Kings in the 1^st round.  Although selecting 3^rd in the draft, GM BM may have picked the RotY in Okafor and then followed this up by also ‘winning’ free agency and landing the biggest fish in Chandler Parsons.  Pair this with an excellent trade which sent away the always injured Pekovic, Hawes and Ariza for big Al Jefferson and the sneaky 2K good, Jeremy Lamb and the Pels are looking stronger.  With starting PG Brandon Knight on the rise look to the Pels to push above 0.500 this season.

The Memphis Grizzlies, led by gm houndy had a fairly uneventful offseason.  After pushing hard to make the playoffs last season they finished 9^th and with no first round pick didn’t add any rookies to the list.  They also pretty much struck out in free agency signing a bunch of journeymen and then to add salt to the wound a front office error meant that RFA Aron Baynes walked out the door scot free.  The only change to the Grizz was sending away David West for CJ Watson.  So with the Pels and Rockets likely improving and on the rise it looks as though the only logical conclusion for the Grizz is they are destined to fall.  So, with perennial under performers Brooke Lopez and Chris Bosh soaking up +$40M of the teams salary cap, and after winning 38 games last season it’s hard to see them winning more than 35 this year.  If things start rough this team could be an early tank candidate.

Finally, the Houston Rockets seem to have a solid gm in spudspace.  After enduring season after season of futility finally the fan base may have something to smile about this season.  The Rockets finished dead last out west epitomised by the corpse of Kobe Bryant watching from the stands for most of the season.  But spudspace did manage to lure Carmelo Anthony and Brandon Jennings to town as well as recently dealing Kobe’s corpse for Enes Kanter et al.  The addition of unheralded bigs in Ezeli and Mahinmi will also be important as not so long ago Charlie Villanueva manned the paint.  The Rockets now have a balanced looking lineup.  To go from 19 wins to a playoff berthwould be a push but look to the Rockets to make some noise this season.

Five best players:

1) Rockets SF/PF Carmelo Anthony - Anthony is one of the most potent scorers in NLL history, currently ranking 6^th all time in scoring.  After signing a $124M deal last season he blew his knee out and only played in 25 games.  This is a guy that IF on the court is near unstoppable averaging over 25 points per game at above 50% shooting.  He is a proto-type scorer who can bully small guys in the paint or light up bigger guys from outside.  And best of all he is a closer who is not afraid to sink in the dagger down the stretch.  His biggest opponent is likely himself.  If he can stay healthy look for him and the Rockets to make a splash out West.

2) Spurs PF/C Anthony Davis - It’s time for Davis to become an NLL star. Gm leeroy has been patiently waiting but now is the time.  If the Spurs are going to take a step upward, then this guy needs to average 20 and 10.  At only 22 years of age and blessed with freakish athletic talent Davis is poised to dominate the NLL for the next decade.  Whilst he has been effective defensively to date, offensively he needs to get more aggressive and dominate the ball, taking at least 15 shots per game.  If he can stay healthy the sky is the limit for this guy.

3) Mavericks C Deandre Jordan – Jordan was runner up to Tyson Chandler for the DPOY Award last season and that led him to signing a 4yr, $88M deal in the offseason.  Shooting at 66% for 11 points, collecting 12.7 rebounds and averaging 1+ in steals and blocks for the full 82 games last season, this guy was an ironman and the Mavericks best player.  He is only 27 years old and like Davis a freakish athlete.  He led the league in dunks by miles as if the ball is anywhere near the rim then it’s quite likely going to be flushed through by Jordan.  Look to DeAndre to increase both his scoring and rebounding this season.

4) Pelicans PG Brandon Knight –  Knight started to come of age in Indiana last season and then was surprisingly dealt to the Pelicans for Jamal Crawford.  Not putting up crazy scoring numbers, what makes Knight the 4^th best player is his efficiency for a guard, good size and ability to play both ends of the floor.  He averaged 17.8 points at 46% shooting, (41% 3fg) last season whilst also dropping 5.7 dimes and stealing the ball 1.3 times per game.  With Burke demoted, Knight has been given the reins this season and is poised to make an even bigger jump.

5) Pelicans C Al Jefferson – This was a tough choice and could have gone to a few players but Al Jefferson was chosen since he has been perhaps the leagues best offensive big man for many years and continues to be so. With the Pels lacking big man depth and big Al in a contract year, look for the big guy to continue to score and rebound the ball close to his career averages of 15 and 10 as he schools rookie Okafor on how to play in the post in the NLL.

Sleeper: If the Mavericks stumble a little bit the team which may well be biting at their heels could well be the New Orleans Pelicans.  With the Spurs losing some firepower in Matthews and the Pels gaining some in Jefferson and Parsons it may well be the team from the Big Easy who surprises.  Another possible sleeper to cause opposing gm’s some fits may well also be the Rockets who have a much improved balanced lineup which includes the Divisions best player. 

Breakout star: Davis was nominated as the 2^nd best player and he still hasn’t even broken out yet!  This guy really has the potential to become a dominant force.  With wingspan for days and guard like skills perhaps its time for gm leeroy to instruct Lou Will and Reggie Jackson to pass the big man the ball.  A dominant Davis could well mean a return to the glory days for the Spurs.

Best newcomer: This is a difficult category but we are going to go with Chandler Parsons.  This guy was paid a thief’s ransom in free agency so it’s now time for him to deliver.  Gm BM really did break the bank in a number of ways not only paying this guy +$15M but dropping 99 gm points on him too.  He is basically the only SF on the team and has an excellent PG and bigs to compliment his game.  Its time for Parsons to get out of the night clubs, focus on basketball and repay the good faith placed in him and take the Pelicans to the next level.

Prediction: It will be the same-ol, same-ol in the SW as the deep Mavericks ride to another division win this season.  The big question is, “are Dallas fans content with always being good or will they pressure gm smokey into condensing some assets together to try and be great?” The Spurs will fight out second with the Pels and edge them by half a game with both teams scraping into the playoffs with a near .500 record. The re-tooled Rockets will blast off and surprise a lot of people with a 30+ wins season whilst the Grizz will go into early  hibernation mode as gm houndy disappears off the NLL map and they tank quietly into the lottery.