The NLL draft is not really a crap shoot. Typically, there’s a pretty direct correlation between where a player gets picked in the draft and how he performs in the league. If you look at the current league leaders in scoring, you’ve got Kevin Durant (2^nd overall pick), Anthony Davis (1^st overall), DeMarcus Cousins (4^th overall), Rudy Gay (5^thoverall), and Carmelo Anthony (2^nd overall) rounds out the top 5. Six #1 overall picks are in the top 25 in scoring. And 20 of those top 25 scoring leaders are picks who went in the top 6 in the draft.

This is unsurprising, and likely the reason why teams are so quick to tank their season if they don’t have a team that is currently a likely playoff contender. Because if you’re lucky enough to land a superstar of that caliber, everything changes. You’ve now got your franchise guy to build the rest of the team around. Of course, it’s not a sure thing that having a top 5 pick is a guarantee of success (Anthony Bennett is available over in the FA Bids section). But the chances are far greater that you’re going to land a star at that stage in the draft.

By contrast, a pick in the 2^nd round has a minimal chance of success. Just 26% of players picked in the second round stay in the league for more than three years. Fewer see a significant amount of playing time. And fewer still become starters, much less stars. So it’s understandable that many GMs consider the 2^nd round to be garbage time. But with a little skill and a buttload of luck, you just might end up landing one of the 2% of 2^ndrounders that actually become stars in the NLL.

For a bit of inspiration, here’s a look at 12 outstanding players who’ve come out of the second round in recent years:

Isaiah Thomas – 88 overall – 56^th pick in 2011 – Long after most people have stopped paying attention in the draft, the Lakers picked up little Isaiah Thomas. Though no relation to the hall of famer bearing the same name (though he was named after him), Thomas has been playing more like a star with a hall of fame pedigree than one who barely snuck into the draft. Since he established himself as a starter in the 2013/14 season, he’s averaging 17.5 points and 7.5 assists per game. By all appearances, Thomas is only getting better and is likely going to be a star in the league for years to come.

Draymond Green – 85 overall – 34^th pick in 2012 – After bouncing around a bit his first couple years, Draymond found a home in OKC and has established himself as a force in the league ever since. He’s all about the intangibles and his contributions go beyond the stat sheet. He’s averaging almost 16 points and 10 rebounds per game, but it’s his lockdown defense and ability to guard essentially any position on the court that really sets him apart.

Marc Gasol – 84 overall – 45^th pick in 2007 – It seems hard to imagine that Gasol wasn’t taken until midway through the second round. But at the time, he was viewed as a slower, chubby version of his older brother who was already a star in the league. So some people were surprised when Gasol turned out to be one of the most dominant centers in the league. Throughout his 8-year career, he’s averaged 13 points, 8 boards, and 1.3 blocks per game. This season is among his career highs with 17.5/9/1.5.

Paul Millsap – 84 overall – 40^th pick in 2006 – Millsap is the rare player  that has spent his entire career with the team who drafted him (especially rare among non-lottery picks). While most players tend to start fading after 10 years in the league, Millsap is having the season of his career thus far. Though he’s been a very good player his entire career, he’s currently averaging 18 points and 10 rebounds per game, both career highs.

Goran Dragic – 81 overall –44^th pick in 2008 – Dragic saw minimal playing time in his first four years in the league. In his fifth season, he became a consistent starter, and since then has averaged 15 points and seven assists per game.

Jae Crowder – 81 overall – 35^th pick in 2012 – Crowder is a player who’s only now coming into his own. A player somewhat like Draymond Green (Crowder was picked immediately after Green in the 2012 draft), Crowder’s contributions go beyond what the numbers show. This season is his first as a full-time starter and his offense is starting to catch up to his already excellent defense, averaging almost 15 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists per game.

Louis Williams â€“ 80 overall – 38^th pick in 2005 – Lou has put together a solid career over the course of his 11 year career. Like many second rounders, he didn’t see a substantial amount of playing time until his 4^th season. But as soon as he became a full-time starter, he established himself as a prolific scorer, averaging 20 points in 26 minutes per game. He hasn’t quite been able to maintain that pace but still has managed a 17.5 point average in 26 minutes.

Khris Middleton â€“ 80 overall – 36^th pick in 2012 – In his first couple seasons, he only saw about 13 minutes per game, and just a handful of starts. But in the past two seasons, he’s earned a full-time starting spot on the Nets, averaging about 14.5 points and 4 rebounds per game.

Marcin Gortat – 79 overall – 58^th pick in 2005 – He’s been a consistent double-double guy throughout his career and this season so far is one of his best. He’s averaging over 12 points and 11 rebounds per game. And let’s not forget that he was the 58^th pick in the draft. At that stage in the draft, you’re just hoping for a guy who can dribble a ball, so it’s safe to say that Gortat has far exceeded expectations.

Serge Ibaka – 78 overall – 31^st pick in 2008 – Ibaka is one of those players who, by all accounts, should have gone in the first round. He had starter-quality skills early on and saw a fairly significant amount of playing time even in his first season. He’s never been a big scorer, though this season he’s averaging over 17 ppg. But he’s made 60% of his shots over the course of his career, averaged 9 rpg, and over one block per game.

Manu Ginobili – 76 overall – 57^th pick in 1999 (NBA) – We had to use NBA figures because Manu was drafted a thousand years ago. But any list of the top 2^nd round draft picks would be incomplete without mentioning Ginobili, who’s been among the more valuable players in the league for the past 15 years. He hasn’t frequently put up eye-popping numbers, though he’s had multiple seasons that he’s averaged more than 20 points per game. And over the length of his extensive career, he’s averaged 19 points per game.

Monta Ellis â€“ 75 overall – 40^th pick in 2005 – While he may be on the downside of his career, it wasn’t all that long ago that Monta was averaging over 30 points per game. He’s been a scoring machine almost since day one. In his first season, he was only seeing 10 minutes per game, and averaged six points in those ten minutes. As his playing time increased, so too did his scoring average, peaking at 32ppg in the 2014/15 season. While no longer at that level, he’s still contributing almost 18 per game.

Yes, your odds of landing a player in the 2^nd round like the ones listed above are very slim. But another thing to consider is that most teams that do draft these future stars either don’t see the potential in these players, or don’t have the patience to sit on them until they materialize into stars and trade them away. Of the players mentioned above, only Paul Millsap is still with the teams that drafted him. So even if you’re not fortunate enough to draft a second round jewel, you may have a good shot of landing one in a trade before they blow up.